Will La Nina heat reverse coffee price downtrend?
Technical Analysis Summary Coffee: Sell
| Indicator | Nilai | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| Donchian Channel | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Sell | |
| Fractals | Sell |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe the COFFEE: D1 has fallen below the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is declining itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 108.94. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 124.31. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis -
Coffee price decline continues weighed by high Brazil export shipments. Will the coffee price continue declining?
No rain is forecast for Brazil’s coffee growing areas for the next 10 days with temperatures expected to hit record highs, according to Somar Meteorologia. This week temperatures may reach 35 degrees Celsius. Even those crops that benefited from rain in the past week have only had 30 millimeters (1.2 inch) this month, just 40% of what was expected. Adverse heat is bearish for 2021 coffee crop. However, arabica futures are down more than 15% this year due to record shipments of Brazil’s exports after cooler and wetter conditions favored coffee growth last year. While dry weather is an upside risk for coffee price, technical setup is bearish.