World cotton crop may turn out to be larger than expected
Technical Analysis Summary Cotton: Sell
| Indicator | Nilai | Signal |
| RSI | Sell | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Neutral | |
| Fractals | Sell | |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell | |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COTTON: D1 broke through the uptrend support line and went down from the triangle. A price gap has been formed on the daily chart. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if COTTON: D1 falls below the last low: 110. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the maximum since July 2011, the last upper fractal, the upper Bollinger line and the Parabolic signal: 120. After opening a pending order, move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (120) without activating the order (110), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis -
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for global cotton production. Will the COTTON quotes drop?
Note that in its November survey, the USDA raised its estimate of the global cotton harvest in the 2021/2022 agricultural season compared to the October survey, which expected 26.19 million tones. Now, he predicts that world cotton production could grow even more - to 26.52 million tons and 8.6% more than the previous season 2020/2021 - 24.42 million tons. The main growth is expected in Brazil, Australia and Pakistan. In the United States, the cotton crop in the 2021/2022 season may increase by almost a quarter compared to the previous season and amount to 3.96 million tons. The USDA expects global cotton consumption to rise by 2.6% in the current 2021/2022 season and a similar decline in global stocks. Moreover, in his opinion, cotton stocks in the USA and Brazil will grow, while in India and Pakistan they will decrease.