fbAnalisis teknis #C-COCOA | Lower rainfall in Ivory Coast bullish for #C-COCOA | IFCM Indonesia

Analisis teknis #C-COCOA : 2020-07-23

Recommendation Kakao:

Buy
Kuat JualSellNEUTRALBuyKuat Beli

Atas 2247

Buy Stop

Bawah 2109

Stop Loss

Expert Avatar
Senior Analytical Expert
Artikel 1573
IndicatorNilaiSignal
RSI NEUTRAL
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-COCOA: D1 is retracing higher toward the 200-day moving average MA(200) after hitting 19-month low in the beginning of July. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 2247. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below 2109. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (2109) without reaching the order (2247) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Rainfall in Ivory Coast was below average last week. Will the cocoa price rebound continue?

Rainfall in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions were below average last week. Rainfall in the western region Soubre totaled around 3.4 millimetres (mm) last week, 21 mm below the five-year average, which was the case also in other western and central regions. And rainfall was also below average in the eastern region of Abengourou, known for the good quality of its cocoa beans. Ivory Coast is the top cocoa producing country in the world. Lower than average rainfall is bullish for cocoa price. On the other hand Barry Callebaut, the world’s biggest chocolate maker, revised its estimate of previously expected 85,000 ton deficit for global cocoa bean production for 2019/20 to a 6,000 ton surplus. An expected global surplus of cocoa is a downside risk for cocoa price.

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